(影)美國享利益，台灣付代價！台灣還要笨多久？
圖翻拍自YT片段
攻台六招？美國教中共如何武統台灣？
西方看中國，看懂中國的統一決心，只有台灣不相信?! 西方看台灣，台灣的價值是看門狗、抗中棋！美式人權高大上，台灣人的命都不是命？
擔憂台軍士氣？相信台灣民意？買軍火就能戰?! 台灣應謀和避戰，卻被美日玩得團團「戰」？(附上路透社翻譯全文)
T-DAY: The Battle for Taiwan By David Lague and Maryanne Murray PUBLISHED NOV. 5, 2021
China’s quest to rule Taiwan has already begun with a campaign of “gray-zone” warfare. Here is how military strategists believe the struggle might play out. 中國對統治臺灣的追求已經開始了一場 “灰區 “戰爭的運動。以下是軍事戰略家認為這場鬥爭可能會發生的情況。
Seventy-two years ago, the Communist Party seized control of China after a bloody struggle. The defeated Nationalist government fled to Taiwan, frustrating Beijing’s desire to capture the island. Since then, China has arisen as a superpower rivaling America; Taiwan has blossomed into a self-governing democracy and high-tech powerhouse with Washington’s backing. Now, after decades of tenuous stalemate, there is a renewed risk of conflict. While it is impossible to know how this long rivalry will play out, in some respects the battle for Taiwan is already underway. 72年前，共產黨經過一場血腥的鬥爭奪取了中國的控制權。戰敗的國民黨政府逃到了臺灣，使北京佔領該島的願望落空。從那時起，中國作為一個超級大國崛起，與美國相抗衡；臺灣在華盛頓的支持下，已經開花結果，成為一個自治的民主和高科技強國。現在，在幾十年的脆弱僵局之後，又出現了衝突的風險。雖然不可能知道這種長期的競爭將如何發展，但在某些方面，爭奪臺灣的戰鬥已經在進行。
As Reuters reported in December, the Chinese military – the People’s Liberation Army – is?waging so-called gray-zone warfare?against Taiwan. This consists of an almost daily campaign of intimidating military exercises, patrols and surveillance that falls just short of armed conflict. Since that report, the campaign has intensified, with Beijing stepping up the number of warplanes it is sending into the airspace around Taiwan. China has also?used sand dredgers to swarm Taiwan’s outlying islands. 正如路透社在12月報導的那樣，中國軍隊，人民解放軍，正在對臺灣發動所謂的「灰區」戰爭。包括幾乎每天進行的恐嚇性軍事演習、巡邏和監視活動，這些活動與武裝衝突相差無幾。自那份報告以來，該運動得到加強，北京增加了派往臺灣周圍空域的戰機數量。中國還使用挖沙船湧入臺灣的離島。
Military strategists tell Reuters that the gray-zone strategy has the potential to grind down Taipei’s resistance – but also that it may fall short, or even backfire by strengthening the island’s resolve. They are also envisioning starker futures. While they can’t predict the future, military planners in China, Taiwan, the United States, Japan and Australia are nonetheless actively gaming out scenarios for how Beijing might try to seize the prized island, and how Taiwan and America, along with its allies, might move to stop it. 軍事專家告訴路透社，灰區戰略有可能磨平臺北的抵抗，但也有可能落空，甚至會因加強島內的決心而適得其反。他們還設想了更嚴峻的未來。雖然他們無法預測未來，但中國、臺灣、美國、日本和澳大利亞的軍事規劃人員，仍在積極籌畫北京如何試圖奪取這個珍貴的島嶼，以及臺灣和美國及其盟友如何採取行動阻止它。
China has a range of tactics it might adopt, military experts say. They all carry risk for President Xi Jinping and his ruling Communist Party. They also pose different challenges for Taiwan and for the United States and its allies,?principally Japan. Xi’s options include seizing Taiwan’s outlying islands, blockades or all-out invasion.?Some Taiwanese military experts say Beijing’s next step might be to seize the lightly defended and remote Pratas Islands in the north of the South China Sea.??Any of these moves could spin out of control into war between China and America over Taiwan. 軍事專家說，中國可能採取一系列的戰術。這些戰術對習近平主席及其執政的共產黨都有風險。它們還對臺灣和美國及其盟友（主要是日本）構成了不同的挑戰。習近平的選擇包括奪取臺灣的離島、封鎖或全面入侵。一些臺灣軍事專家說，北京的下一步可能是奪取南中國海北部防衛薄弱和偏遠的東沙島。這些舉動中的任何一個都可能失去控制，變成中國和美國之間的臺灣戰爭。
This report examines some of the conflict scenarios. It is based on interviews with close to a dozen military strategists and 15 current and former military officers from Taiwan, the United States, Australia and Japan. Some serving officers spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity. The report also draws on articles in U.S., Chinese and Taiwanese military and professional journals and official publications. In places, we have provided links to published articles and documents that shed light on Chinese, Taiwanese and U.S. thinking. 報告研究了一些衝突的情況。它是基於對來自臺灣、美國、澳大利亞和日本的近十名軍事戰略家和15名現任和前任軍官的採訪。路透社對一些匿名的現役軍官進行了採訪。報告還參考了美國、中國和臺灣的軍事和專業期刊以及官方出版物中的文章。在一些地方，我們提供了闡明中國、臺灣和美國想法的公開文章和檔的連結。
These scenarios are, by their very nature, speculative. They are not predictions by Reuters of events to come. There is no certainty that real conflict would follow any of these trajectories. And hostilities may not erupt at all. But with tensions high, accident or miscalculation could become a catalyst for clashes at any time. 這些方案就其本質而言是推測性的，它們並不是路透社對未來事件的預測，並不確定真正的衝突會遵循這些軌跡中的任何一條。而且，敵對行動可能根本就不會爆發。但在緊張局勢下，意外或誤判隨時都可能成為衝突的催化劑。
“For all sides the stakes are enormous,” said Ian Easton, a senior director of the Project 2049 Institute in Arlington, Virginia, and author of “The Chinese Invasion Threat,” a 2017 book which lays out the challenges the PLA faces in mounting an invasion and how Taiwan might respond. “A life and death game is underway, and none of the players have any way of knowing how it will end.” 維吉尼亞州阿靈頓的2049專案研究所高管、2017年《中國的入侵威脅》一書的作者伊恩.伊斯頓說：「對所有各方來說，利害關係都是巨大的」，該書闡述了解放軍在發動入侵時所面臨的挑戰以及臺灣可能作出的反應。「一場生死攸關的遊戲正在進行中，沒有一個參與者能知道它將如何結束。」
A China foreign ministry spokesperson said the ministry would not comment on “hypothetical reports.” But the spokesperson added that the ruling party in Taiwan and ‘“Taiwan independence’ elements, in collusion with external forces, are constantly engaging in provocations by seeking ‘independence,’ which is the root cause of the current tense and turbulent situation in the Taiwan Strait.”? 中國外交部發言人表示，中國外交部不會對「假設性的報導」發表評論。但該發言人補充說，臺灣執政黨和「『台獨』分子與外部勢力勾結，不斷通過尋求『獨立』進行挑釁，這是當前臺海局勢緊張和動盪的根本原因。」
Today, under Xi Jinping, China is flashing impatience with Taiwan’s unwillingness to submit to Beijing’s rule. Xi says China’s aim is peaceful unification, but has pointedly?refused to rule out the use of force. 今天，在習近平的領導下，中國對臺灣不願意服從北京的統治已表現出不耐煩。習近平說，中國的目標是和平統一，但明確拒絕排除使用武力的可能性。
Chinese control of Taiwan would dramatically reinforce the Communist Party’s prestige at home and eliminate the island as a viable model of a democratic alternative to authoritarian Party rule. It would also give China a foothold in the so-called first island chain, the line which runs through the string of islands from the Japanese archipelago to Taiwan, the Philippines and Borneo, which enclose China’s coastal seas. 中國對臺灣的控制將極大地加強共產黨在國內的威望，並消除該島作為民主替代威權黨統治的可行模式。它還將使中國在所謂的第一島鏈中獲得一個立足點，這條線貫穿了從日本群島到臺灣、菲律賓和婆羅洲的一連串島嶼，將中國的沿海海域包圍起來。
For Beijing, success would translate into a commanding strategic position in Asia, undermining the security of Japan and South Korea, and allowing China to project power into?the Western Pacific. But Beijing also has an incentive to be cautious: If America and its allies intervened against a takeover attempt, they could inflict heavy losses on an untested Chinese military that has not fired a shot in anger for decades. Defeat could weaken the Party’s hold on power. 對北京來說，成功的話將轉化為在亞洲的戰略指揮地位，破壞日本和韓國的安全，並允許中國將力量投射到西太平洋。但中國政府也有謹慎行事的動機：如果美國及其盟國對接管企圖進行干預，他們可能會給未經考驗的中國軍隊造成重大損失，而中國軍隊已經幾十年沒有憤怒地開過一槍，失敗可能會削弱黨對權力的控制。
For the American alliance, a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would be a devastating blow. At a stroke, the United States would?lose its status as the pre-eminent power in Asia, according to most U.S. and regional military experts. If America were unwilling or unable to defend Taiwan, its network of allies in the Asia-Pacific – including Tokyo, Seoul and Canberra – would overnight be far more vulnerable to military and economic coercion from China.?Some might switch allegiance to Beijing, analysts say.?Some might seek nuclear weapons?to boost their own security.? 對美國及其盟友來說，中國接管臺灣將是一個毀滅性的打擊。根據大多數美國和地區軍事專家的看法，美國將一舉失去其作為亞洲卓越大國的地位。如果美國不願意或不能保衛臺灣，其在亞太地區的盟友網路–包括東京、首爾和坎培拉–將在一夜之間更容易受到中國的軍事和經濟威脅。分析家們說，一些人可能會轉而效忠於北京，一些人可能會尋求核武器以加強自身安全。
If America did opt to defend the island, though, there is no guarantee it would defeat an increasingly powerful PLA, according to current and former senior U.S. commanders. To counter China’s military rise, the United States is now?rolling out new weapons and strategy in the Asia-Pacific. 現任和前任美國高級指揮官表示，如果美國真的選擇保衛台灣，但不能保證它能擊敗日益強大的解放軍。為了應對中國的軍事崛起，美國目前正在亞太地區推出新的武器和戰略。
There are indications America’s stance may be stiffening. Asked last month if the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense if China launched an attack, President Joe Biden appeared to depart from the long-held U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity” when he replied: “Yes, we have a commitment to do that.”? 有跡象表明，美國的立場可能會變得強硬。上個月，當被問及如果中國發動攻擊，美國是否會為臺灣辯護時，美國總統拜登回答說，他似乎偏離了美國長期堅持的「戰略模糊」政策。「是的，我們有承諾這樣做。」
Lieutenant Colonel Martin Meiners, a spokesperson for the Pentagon, had no comment on “specific operations, engagements, or training” described in this report. But Meiners said that China had “stepped up efforts to intimidate and pressure Taiwan and other allies,” and this increases “the risk of miscalculation.”? 五角大樓發言人馬丁‧邁納斯中校對這份報告中描述的「具體行動、交戰或訓練」不予評論。但邁納斯說，中國已經「加強了恐嚇和施壓臺灣和其他盟國的努力」，這增加了「誤判的風險」。
For Japan, blocking China from gaining a foothold in its trade routes is vital. From Taiwan, the Chinese military could threaten Japan’s southern islands and dominate the sea lanes that carry its imports and exports. Top Japanese officials now publicly acknowledge?Tokyo must assist the United States in defending Taiwan. Asked about the conflict scenarios, Japan’s defense ministry said it couldn’t comment “on hypothetical questions or speculation.” 對日本來說，阻止中國在其貿易路線上獲得立足點是至關重要的。從臺灣出發，中國軍隊可以威脅到日本的南部島嶼，並主掌運送日本進出口貨物的海上通道。日本高層官員現在公開承認東京必須協助美國保衛臺灣。當被問及衝突情景時，日本國防部說它不能對「假設性問題或猜測」發表評論。
In Taiwan, an overwhelming majority of the island’s 23.5 million people think of themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese and support closer economic and political ties with the United States, according to opinion polls and recent election outcomes. This sentiment has hardened as they watch Beijing’s ongoing crackdown in Hong Kong. President Tsai Ing-wen has repeatedly said Taiwan will defend its freedom and democratic way of life. 在臺灣，根據民意調查和最近的選舉結果，島上2350萬人中的絕大多數，認為自己是臺灣人而不是中國人，並支持與美國建立更緊密的經濟和政治關係。當他們看著北京在香港的持續鎮壓時，這種情緒更加強烈。蔡英文總統多次表示，臺灣將捍衛其自由和民主的生活方式。
Taiwan’s defense ministry said in a statement that the island’s military had “drawn up relevant countermeasures and made various combat plans” regarding possible actions and attempts to invade Taiwan by the “Communist army.” 臺灣的國防部在一份聲明中說，針對「共軍」可能採取的行動和入侵臺灣的企圖，島內軍方已經「制定了相關的反制措施和各種作戰計畫。」
Xi has made one thing clear: Taiwan, he has said, “must be, will be” unified with China to realize his dream of a rejuvenated China, a nation that recaptures the position it held for centuries as a great Asian power.? 習近平已經明確了一件事：他說，臺灣「必須、將會」與中國統一，以實現他的復興中國的夢想，一個幾個世紀以來的重新奪回它作為亞洲大國地位的國家。
SCENARIO 1：BLOCKADE OF THE MATSU ISLANDS 步驟一：封鎖馬組
【SITUATION】狀況 After a long campaign of gray-zone warfare fails to bring Taipei to the negotiating table, Xi and his ruling Communist Party run out of patience. Public opinion polls in Taiwan show steadily increasing support for formal independence among the island’s younger generation. The United States and its regional allies continue to bolster military and political ties with Taipei. Xi and his top military commanders decide that China will impose a blockade on Taiwan’s Matsu Islands in a bid to increase pressure on Taipei to open talks on unification. The Matsus are home to about 13,500 people. The chain of small islands and islets hugs the Chinese coast, lying about nine kilometers from the shores of China’s Fujian Province at the closest point. Communist authorities have always regarded the Matsus as part of China’s Lianjiang County. Now they plan to assert this claim. 在長期的灰色地帶戰爭未能將臺北帶到談判桌前後，習近平和他的執政的共產黨已經沒有耐心了。臺灣的民意調查顯示，年輕一代對正式獨立的支持率正在穩步上升。美國及其地區盟友繼續加強與臺北的軍事和政治聯繫。 習近平和他的高級軍事指揮官決定，中國將對臺灣的馬祖島實施封鎖，以增加對臺北的壓力，使其開啟統一談判。 連串的小島嶼環繞著中國海岸，離中國福建省海岸最近的地方約9公里。共黨當局一直認為馬祖是中國連江縣的一部分。現在他們計畫堅持這一主張。
【RESPONSE】回應 This is the opening of the fourth and most serious Taiwan Strait crisis since 1949.?Taipei’s military commanders send warships and fighter jets to attack the PLA forces enforcing the blockade. With China’s overwhelming advantage in missiles, strike aircraft and warships, Taiwan’s relieving forces are wiped out long before they reach the Matsus. As Taipei issues urgent appeals for military and diplomatic assistance from the United States and its allies, Beijing calls for immediate talks with the Taiwan government to discuss a timetable for unification. 這是自1949年以來，第四次也是最嚴重的臺灣海峽危機的開端。臺北的軍事指揮官派出軍艦和戰鬥機，攻擊執行封鎖的解放軍部隊。由於中國在導彈、攻擊機和軍艦方面具有壓倒性的優勢，臺灣的解圍部隊在到達松江之前就被消滅了。 當臺北發出緊急呼籲，要求美國及其盟國提供軍事和外交援助時，北京呼籲立即與臺灣政府進行會談，討論統一的時間表。
【OUTCOME】結果 Taiwan rejects Beijing’s demands but decides against a full-scale military campaign to break the blockade. The Matsu Islands are effectively under Communist Party rule. International tensions skyrocket as the United States and its allies apply coordinated trade and economic sanctions on Beijing. 臺灣拒絕北京的要求，但決定不採取全面的軍事行動來打破封鎖。馬祖群島實際上處於共產黨的統治之下。隨著美國及其盟國對北京實施協調一致的貿易和經濟制裁，國際緊張局勢急劇上升。
SCENARIO 2：INVATION OF KINMEN 步驟二：入侵金門
【SITUATION】狀況 China has been conducting ?an unbroken campaign of gray-zone warfare and a blockade of the Matsu Islands. But the Taiwan government flatly refuses to open unification talks. Amid an international outcry against Beijing’s aggression, public opinion in Taiwan hardens dramatically against any form of union with China. Taiwan boosts defense spending, expands the period of conscription and requests sharp increases in military supplies and weapons from the United States. A U.S.-led campaign to assist Taiwan includes accelerated support for the island’s program to build a fleet of modern, stealthy submarines. Meanwhile, the PLA carefully conceals a build-up of forces trained in amphibious landings at ports along the coast of Fujian Province. The PLA also assembles airborne troops at a network of bases further inland. 中國一直在進行不間斷的灰色地帶的戰爭和對馬祖群島的封鎖。但臺灣政府斷然拒絕開啟統一談判。在國際社會對北京的侵略行為的強烈抗議下，臺灣的公眾輿論對任何形式的與中國的聯合都表現得很強硬。臺灣增加國防開支，擴大徵兵期，並要求美國大幅提供軍事物資和武器。以美國為首的援助臺灣的運動，包括加速支援該島的計畫，以建立一支現代化的隱形潛水艇艦隊。 與此同時，解放軍小心翼翼地掩蓋了在福建省沿海港口進行兩棲登陸訓練的部隊的集結。解放軍還在更遠的內陸地區的基地內集結空降部隊。
【ACTION】行動 President Xi and his top commanders decide that Beijing will seize the Taiwanese island of Kinmen, about six kilometers from the Chinese port city of Xiamen on the coast of Fujian Province and home to about 140,000 people. Without warning, the PLA unleashes an artillery and missile barrage against Kinmen’s Taiwanese army headquarters, barracks, defensive positions and key infrastructure targets. Chinese fighters and bombers launch strikes against Taiwanese garrison troops rushing to their defensive positions. While the bombardment continues, PLA landing craft packed with troops converge on Kinmen’s beaches, and hundreds of helicopters ferry airborne troops to seize key strategic positions. With the island’s airport under PLA control, Chinese transport aircraft land and begin disgorging troops and equipment. From naval bases on the Chinese coast, dozens of powerful Chinese warships and submarines sail into waters between Kinmen and Taiwan in a bid to block any reinforcements reaching the besieged island. Overhead, PLA fighters maintain a continual screen to prevent Taiwan’s air force attacking the invasion force. PLA troops assault Kinmen’s beaches in an attempt to link up with the airborne forces inland on the island. 習近平主席和他的首席指揮官決定，北京將奪取臺灣的金門島，該島距離中國福建省沿海的港口城市廈門約6公里，約有14萬人居住。 在沒有任何警告的情況下，解放軍對金門的台軍總部、軍營、防禦陣地和關鍵基礎設施目標發動了炮擊和導彈襲擊。中國的戰鬥機和轟炸機對趕往防禦陣地的臺灣駐軍進行了打擊。在轟炸繼續進行的同時，解放軍的登陸艇載著部隊在金門的海灘上集結，數百架直升機運送空降部隊去奪取關鍵的戰略陣地。 隨著該島的機場被解放軍控制，中國的運輸機降落並開始運送部隊和裝備。從中國沿海的海軍基地，幾十艘強大的中國軍艦和潛艇駛入金門和臺灣之間的水域，試圖阻止任何增援部隊到達被圍困的島嶼。在頭頂上，解放軍的戰鬥機保持著一個持續的螢幕，以防止臺灣的空軍攻擊入侵的部隊。解放軍部隊襲擊了金門的海灘，試圖與該島內陸的空降部隊會合。
【RESPONSE】回應 Taiwan’s military commanders launch waves of missile strikes against ports along the Chinese coast and PLA warships near the island. Taiwan’s air defense system also fires surface-to-air missiles at PLA aircraft over the Taiwan Strait. The island’s jet fighters scramble to attack Chinese fighters and bombers attacking Kinmen. 臺灣的軍事指揮官對中國沿海的港口和解放軍在該島附近的軍艦，發動了一波又一波的導彈襲擊。臺灣的防空系統也向臺灣海峽上空的解放軍飛機發射了地對空導彈，島上的噴射式戰鬥機爭相攻擊襲擊金門的中國戰鬥機和轟炸機。
【OUTCOME】結果 Before the United States and its allies can respond to desperate pleas for assistance from Taipei, PLA ground forces overwhelm Kinmen’s defenders. As American and Japanese naval forces steam towards the Taiwan Strait, Beijing warns they should not intervene. It calls for an immediate ceasefire so military and civilian casualties on Kinmen can be evacuated to Chinese hospitals and essential services restored. Beijing also demands that Taipei agree to talks on unification under the formula of “one country, two systems.” Amid an international outcry, China blocks moves by the United Nations to condemn its invasion of Kinmen. Xi and the top Chinese leadership hunker down to endure economic and trade sanctions, calculating Washington and its allies will not risk major war over such a small territory. Beijing’s assessment is borne out when U.S. and Japanese ships and aircraft avoid attacks on Chinese forces. But the crisis continues: Washington begins deploying more air, naval and ground forces to Asia. It accelerates arms deliveries to Taiwan and begins a global diplomatic campaign to impose a punishing technology embargo on China.? 在美國及其盟友能夠對來自臺北的絕望的援助請求作出反應之前，解放軍的地面部隊壓倒了金門的保衛者。當美國和日本的海軍部隊向臺灣海峽駛來時，北京警告說他們不應進行干預。北京要求立即停火，以便將金門的軍民傷亡人員撤到中國醫院，並恢復基本服務。北京還要求臺北同意在「一國兩制」的模式下進行統一談判。 在國際社會的強烈抗議下，中國阻止了聯合國譴責其入侵金門的行動。習近平和中國最高領導層蜷縮起來，忍受經濟和貿易制裁，認為華盛頓及其盟友不會為了這麼小的領土而冒巨大的戰爭風險。當美國和日本的船隻和飛機避免對中國軍隊進行攻擊時，北京的評估得到了證實，但危機仍在繼續。華盛頓開始向亞洲部署更多的空軍、海軍和地面部隊。它加快了向臺灣運送武器的速度，並開始了一場全球外交運動，對中國實施懲罰性技術禁運。
SCENARIO 3：CUSTOMS QUARANTIEN 步驟三：海空隔離 【SITUATION】狀況 With tensions mounting over China’s extended campaign of gray-zone warfare against Taiwan and an ongoing blockade of Matsu, Taiwan continues to reject holding unification talks with Beijing. Public opinion remains strongly behind the Taipei government. The island boosts defense spending and expands the period of conscription. Amid an ongoing international outcry, the United States steps up delivery of arms for the beleaguered island’s military: F-16 fighters, long-range anti-ship missiles, tanks, smart mines and attack helicopters. Washington also dispatches extra military advisers to assist in an urgent overhaul of Taiwan’s large but poorly trained reserve forces. After publicly confirming that it would help the United States defend Taiwan, Japan deploys army and navy units to southern islands in the Japanese archipelago for intensive amphibious landing training. Alarmed at Taiwan’s preparations, China’s military and political leadership under President Xi Jinping decides to impose a snap customs quarantine of Taiwan in a bid to force the island’s leadership to agree to talks. 隨著中國對臺灣擴大的灰區戰役和對馬祖的持續封鎖，使緊張局勢加劇，臺灣持續拒絕與北京舉行統一談判。公眾輿論仍然強烈支持臺北政府，台灣提高了國防開支，並擴大了徵兵的期限。 在國際社會的不斷抗議下，美國加緊向這個被圍困的島嶼的軍隊提供武器，F-16戰鬥機、遠端反艦導彈、坦克、智慧水雷和攻擊直升機等武器。華盛頓還派遣了額外的軍事顧問，協助對臺灣龐大但訓練不足的後備部隊進行緊急整頓。在華盛頓公開確認將幫助美國保衛臺灣之後，日本將陸軍和海軍部署到日本群島的南部島嶼，進行密集的兩棲登陸訓練。 習近平主席領導下的中國軍事和政治領導人對臺灣的準備工作感到震驚，決定對臺灣實施緊急海空封鎖，以迫使臺灣領導人同意會談。
【ACTION】行動 In a message to Taiwan’s trading partners, Beijing reminds them that they all acknowledge the ruling Communist Party’s claim to sovereignty over the self-governing island. In the same notice, Beijing informs the international community that it will enforce customs, maritime and airspace jurisdiction over Taiwan. China also announces the creation of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), an area that stretches beyond a territory’s air space where air traffic controllers request incoming flights to identify themselves. The move overrides Taiwan’s existing control of its airspace. Beijing bans all shipping from entering what had been considered Taiwan’s territorial waters without its permission. The Chinese authorities inform all airlines and shipping companies that they must have Beijing’s official approval to enter or leave Taiwan’s airspace or ports. They also insist that all flights, ships and ferries submit passenger manifestos and customs declarations to Chinese authorities. Within 24 hours, a vast fleet of PLA Navy, coast guard and maritime militia ships deploys around Taiwan to enforce the quarantine, intercepting ships attempting to approach the island without approval from Beijing. PLA fighters and air-defense missile forces prepare to attack unauthorized aircraft entering airspace around Taiwan. Vessels heading for Taiwan are stopped and searched for weapons, military technology or other imports that would contribute to Taiwan’s defenses. Bigger cargo vessels are diverted to Chinese ports for inspection. Foreign military forces are warned they will come under attack if they attempt to approach the island. With only essential supplies of food and energy allowed through the cordon, Beijing demands that the international community refrain from interfering in China’s internal affairs. With the quarantine in place, and before the United States and its allies can intervene, Xi calls on the Taiwanese authorities to avert a looming global crisis and open immediate talks on unification. 在給臺灣交易夥伴的資訊中，北京提醒他們，他們都承認執政的共產黨對這個自治島嶼的主權要求。在同一通知中，北京通知國際社會，將對臺灣實施海關、海事和空域管轄。中國還宣佈設立防空識別區，這是一個延伸到領土領空之外的區域，空中交通管制員要求入境的航班表明自己的身份。此舉推翻了臺灣對其空域的現有控制。
北京禁止所有航運在未經其許可的情況下，進入一直被認為是臺灣的領海。中國當局通知所有航空公司和航運公司，他們必須有北京的正式批准才能進入或離開臺灣的領空或港口。他們還堅持要求所有航班、船舶和渡輪向中國當局提交乘客名單和海關申報。 在24小時內，一支由解放軍海軍、海岸警衛隊和海上民兵艦艇組成的龐大艦隊，部署在臺灣周圍，以執行檢疫，攔截未經北京批准而試圖接近臺灣島的船隻。解放軍戰鬥機和防空導彈部隊準備攻擊進入臺灣周邊空域的未經授權的飛機。前往臺灣的船隻被攔截，搜查是否有武器、軍事技術或其他有助於臺灣防禦的進口物品。大型貨船被轉移到中國港口進行檢查。 外國軍隊被警告說，如果他們試圖接近該島，將會受到攻擊。只有基本的食品和能源供應可以通過封鎖線，北京要求國際社會不要干涉中國的內部事務。隨著隔離措施的實施，在美國及其盟友能夠進行干預之前，習近平呼籲臺灣當局避免迫在眉睫的全球危機，並立即就統一問題展開談判。
【RESPONSE】回應 Taipei rejects Chinese demands for talks and deploys warships and fighters in an attempt to break the quarantine. While calling for urgent assistance from the United States and its allies, it also launches land-based missile strikes on PLA warships and aircraft around the island. Chinese forces suffer some losses, but Taiwan’s efforts to keep its ports open for trade are quickly snuffed out by the PLA’s superior firepower. 臺北拒絕了中國的談判要求，並部署了軍艦和戰鬥機，試圖打破隔離狀態。在呼籲美國及其盟國提供緊急援助的同時，它還對台灣周邊的解放軍軍艦和飛機發動了陸基導彈襲擊。中國軍隊遭受了一些損失，但臺灣保持其港口開放貿易的努力很快就被解放軍的優勢火力扼殺了。
【OUTCOME】結果 With the sudden halt to all imports and exports, Taiwan faces almost immediate shortages of essential supplies, particularly energy. The island is suddenly cut off from the world. While the United States and its allies decide how to respond, Beijing offers to allow essential supplies to get through on condition that Taipei agrees to immediate talks on unification. 隨著進出口的突然全面停止，臺灣幾乎立即面臨基本供應的短缺，特別是能源，該島突然與世界隔絕。在美國及其盟友決定如何應對的時候，北京提出允許基本物資通過，條件是臺北同意立即進行統一談判。
SCENARIO 4：FULL BLOCKADE 步驟四：全面封鎖 【SITUATION】狀況 Under a tight customs quarantine, Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s demand for talks on unification and calls on the United States and its allies to assist in breaking China’s stranglehold. Global stock markets crash in anticipation of a wider military clash and a shortage of vital semiconductors and other key tech products from Taiwan. With Washington warning Beijing to lift its quarantine or face military intervention, China decides to impose a full blockade in a bid to increase domestic pressure on Taipei. 在嚴格的海關隔離下，臺灣政府拒絕了北京關於統一談判的要求，並呼籲美國及其盟友協助打破中國的束縛。全球股市因預期更廣泛的軍事衝突，以及來自臺灣的重要半導體和其他關鍵技術產品的短缺而崩潰。 由於華盛頓警告北京取消隔離，否則將面臨軍事干預，中國決定實施全面封鎖，以增加對臺北的內部壓力。
【ACTION】行動 Beijing bars all shipping from entering waters around Taiwan apart from PLA Navy and Chinese paramilitary vessels enforcing the blockade. Oil tankers heading to the island from the Middle East are diverted to Chinese terminals. All passenger and cargo aircraft are warned they will be attacked if they intrude into the new Air Defense Identification Zone that China has imposed over Taiwan. Taiwanese navy vessels at sea are called on to surrender. Those that refuse are attacked and sunk. PLA warships and submarines lay mines in the approaches to all of Taiwan’s major ports. The crucial submarine data cables carrying Taiwan’s communications with the outside world are cut. PLA warships and strike aircraft are deployed in strength to block U.S. and Japanese forces from approaching Taiwan. With the island totally isolated and shortages mounting, Beijing demands that Taipei open unification talks. 除了執行封鎖的解放軍海軍和中國准軍事部隊的船隻外，北京禁止所有船隻進入臺灣周圍水域。從中東前往該島的油輪被轉移到中國碼頭。所有客運和貨運飛機都被警告說，如果它們闖入中國在臺灣上空強加的新防空識別區，就會遭到攻擊。 海上的臺灣海軍船隻被要求投降，那些拒絕投降的船隻被攻擊和擊沉。解放軍的軍艦和潛艇在通往臺灣所有主要港口的通道上埋設水雷。輸送臺灣與外界通信的關鍵海底電纜被切斷。 解放軍大量部署軍艦和攻擊機，以阻止美國和日本軍隊接近臺灣。由於台灣完全被孤立，物資短缺日益嚴重，北京要求臺北開啟統一談判。
【RESPONSE】回應 With promises of support from the U.S. and its allies, Taiwan launches air and missile strikes on PLA warships and paramilitary vessels strangling its trade. The United States and its allies including Japan deploy powerful surface warships and submarines to the area around Taiwan to break the blockade. Long-range U.S. bombers are deployed to Guam and Australia to boost allied firepower over the waters off the Chinese coast. First to arrive near Taiwan, American and Japanese submarines begin sinking PLA warships enforcing the blockade. Carrying huge payloads of long-range anti-ship missiles, American bombers also inflict massive damage on China’s surface fleet. 在美國及其盟國的支持承諾下，臺灣對扼殺其貿易的解放軍軍艦和准軍事船隻發動了空襲和導彈襲擊。美國及其盟國，包括日本，向臺灣周圍地區部署了強大的水面戰艦和潛艇，以打破封鎖。美國部署遠端轟炸機被到關島和澳大利亞，以增強盟國在中國沿海水域的火力。 美國和日本的潛艇首先到達臺灣附近，開始擊沉執行封鎖的解放軍軍艦。美國轟炸機攜帶了大量的遠端反艦導彈，也對中國的水面艦隊造成了巨大的破壞。
【OUTCOME】結果 But China’s powerful air-defense system and anti-ship missile batteries prevent America and its allies from opening Taiwan’s shipping lanes and ports. Beijing also launches strikes on U.S. bases in Japan in a bid to weaken America’s capacity to respond. The clashes lead to heavy losses of warships and lives. With its blockade still in place, Beijing calls for an immediate ceasefire, offers to allow urgently needed supplies to reach Taiwan and invites negotiations with Washington in a bid to avert a full-scale war. Rather than attempt to destroy the PLA’s air-defense network with air and missile strikes on Chinese soil, attacks that could easily lead to all-out conflict, Washington and its allies decide to threaten an economic counterattack. They warn they will impose a counter blockade of their own on China’s seaborne imports of energy and raw materials carried on sea lanes across the Indian Ocean and through the narrow chokepoints of the Indonesian archipelago. 但中國強大的防空系統和反艦導彈使美國及其盟友無法打開臺灣的航道和港口。北京還對美國在日本的基地進行了打擊，以削弱美國的應對能力。這些衝突導致了軍艦和生命的嚴重損失。在其封鎖仍然存在的情況下，北京呼籲立即停火，提出允許急需的物資到達臺灣，並邀請華盛頓進行談判，以避免全面戰爭的發生。 華盛頓及其盟國沒有試圖通過對中國領土進行空中和導彈襲擊來摧毀解放軍的防空網路，這種襲擊很容易導致全面衝突，而是決定威脅要進行經濟反擊。美方警告說，他們將對中國通過印度洋的海上通道和印尼群島的狹窄咽喉地帶進口的能源和原物料實施反封鎖。
SCENARIO 5：AIR AND MISSILE CAMPAIGN 步驟五：空中和導彈戰役
【SITUATION】狀況 Alarmed by Beijing’s increasingly aggressive gray-zone tactics, the United States and its allies step up efforts to enhance Taiwan’s defenses. Weapons sales are accelerated, munitions are stockpiled and Taiwan begins to bolster the readiness of its regular and reserve forces. Taiwan’s outmanned and outgunned military also begins to re-organize for asymmetric warfare: It disperses and conceals hundreds of lethal, long-range missiles capable of striking at the PLA’s superior force of warships, aircraft and targets on Chinese soil. The United States is also boosting the firepower of its forces in Asia, while senior Japanese leaders pledge support for America in defending Taiwan if the island comes under attack. Xi and his top commanders decide that there is no realistic prospect of gaining control of Taiwan without conflict. And they calculate they face a narrow window of opportunity in which the PLA holds an advantage in firepower in the waters off the Chinese coast. In an era of increasing rivalry with the United States, delay could mean unification becomes increasingly difficult and exposes the Communist Party leadership to internal revolt. The Chinese economy is slowing sharply as a massive property bubble deflates, making it difficult to sustain the huge increases in defense spending that has delivered the world’s biggest military. The leadership considers but rules out limited measures including seizing outlying islands, or imposing blockades. They calculate these operations are just as likely to ignite a global economic crisis and invite American intervention as a full-scale invasion. And, there is no guarantee Taiwan will capitulate. But assessments from top planners convince Xi and his top brass that an invasion, the biggest and most complex amphibious landing ever attempted, is beyond the PLA’s capabilities. The risk of failure is great, which could threaten the Communist Party’s hold on power. Instead, Chinese leaders decide to launch a devastating air and missile attack on the island’s defenses. The aim is to smash Taiwan’s military, demoralize the population and force Taipei to the negotiating table before the United States and its allies can intervene. 由於對北京日益咄咄逼人的灰色地帶戰術感到震驚，美國及其盟友加緊努力加強臺灣的防衛。武器銷售加速，儲存彈藥，臺灣開始加強其常規部隊和後備部隊的準備工作。臺灣兵力不足、武器匱乏的軍隊也開始為不對稱戰爭進行重組：它分散和隱藏了數百枚致命的遠端導彈，能夠打擊解放軍的優勢軍艦、飛機和中國境內的目標。美國也在增強其在亞洲的部隊火力，而日本高級領導人承諾，如果臺灣受到攻擊，他們將支持美國保衛臺灣。 習近平和他的高階指揮官們決定，不發生衝突，就沒有獲得臺灣控制權的現實前景。而且他們計算出他們面臨著一個狹窄的機會視窗，在這個視窗中，解放軍在中國沿海水域擁有火力優勢。在與美國競爭日益激烈的時代，拖延可能意味著統一變得越來越困難，並使共產黨領導層面臨內部叛亂。隨著大規模房地產泡沫的消退，中國經濟正在急劇放緩，這使得中國難以維持大幅增加的國防開支，而這項開支使中國擁有世界上最大的軍隊。領導層考慮但排除了有限的措施，包括奪取離島，或實施封鎖。他們計算出這些行動與全面入侵一樣，可能會引發全球經濟危機，並招致美國的干預。而且，不能保證臺灣會屈服。 但是，首席規劃師的評估使習近平和他的高層相信，入侵–有史以來最大和最複雜的兩棲登陸行動，超出了解放軍的能力。失敗的風險很大，這可能會威脅到共產黨的權力。相反，中國領導人決定對該島的防禦系統發動毀滅性的空中和導彈攻擊。其目的是粉碎臺灣的軍隊，打擊民眾的士氣，並迫使臺北在美國及其盟國干預之前坐到談判桌上。
【ACTION】行動 Without warning, PLA forces launch massive saturation attacks on key military and civilian targets. These include airfields, ports, air-defense radars, communication nodes, military command centers and headquarters, missile batteries, navy bases, major warships, key bridges, communication networks, power stations and grids, government buildings, radio and television stations, data centers and major transport arteries. Beijing deploys missile, naval and air forces to keep the United States and its allies from sending forces to assist Taiwan. In follow-up attacks, China’s missile units, navy and air force strike at surviving Taiwanese warships, fighters and missile batteries. 在沒有任何警告的情況下，解放軍部隊對關鍵的軍事和民用目標發動大規模的飽和攻擊。這些目標包括機場、港口、防空雷達、通信節點、軍事指揮中心和總部、導彈發射台、海軍基地、主要軍艦、關鍵橋樑、通信網路、發電站和電網、政府大樓、廣播和電視臺、資料中心和主要交通幹線。 北京部署了導彈、海軍和空軍部隊，以阻止美國及其盟友派兵援助臺灣。在後續攻擊中，中國的導彈部隊、海軍和空軍對倖存的臺灣軍艦、戰鬥機和導彈電池進行打擊。
【RESPONSE】回應 With missiles and airstrikes intensifying across the island, Taiwan rushes its political and military leadership to specially prepared underground command centers and deploys its regular forces to their defensive positions, anticipating a full invasion. Reserves are mobilized. From hangars buried deep in mountains, Taiwan’s fighters emerge to attack PLA strike aircraft. Taiwan’s air defense system, one of the world’s most advanced, also attacks the PLA air force with missiles from camouflaged and concealed batteries scattered around the island. Taiwan’s long-range ballistic and cruise missiles strike Chinese air bases, missile battery radars and other military targets. 隨著導彈攻擊和空襲在全島的加劇，臺灣的政治和軍事領導人急忙趕往特別準備的地下指揮所，並將其正規部隊部署到他們的防禦陣地，預計會有全面入侵。後備部隊也被動員起來。 臺灣的戰鬥機從埋在深山中的機庫裡出來，攻擊解放軍的攻擊機。臺灣的防空系統是世界上最先進的防空系統之一，也從分散在島上的偽裝和隱蔽的電池中用導彈攻擊解放軍空軍。 臺灣的遠端彈道導彈和巡航導彈攻擊中國的空軍基地、導彈電池雷達和其他軍事目標。
【OUTCOME】結果 With Taiwan’s military heavily damaged and key infrastructure in ruins, Beijing calls for an immediate ceasefire before the United States and its allies can intervene and demands Taipei agree to negotiate arrangements for unification. Despite the devastation, Taiwan remains defiant and flatly refuses to negotiate. It persists with mobilizing its reserves and dispersing its remaining weapons. It rushes extra troops to potential landing beaches to deter a PLA invasion. Amid a global outcry over massive casualties and hardship, the United States and its allies begin deploying forces to reinforce the island’s defenses. 由於臺灣的軍隊遭到嚴重破壞，關鍵的基礎設施成為廢墟，北京要求在美國及其盟國進行干預之前立即停火，並要求臺北同意就統一的安排進行談判。 儘管遭到了破壞，臺灣仍然不顧一切，斷然拒絕談判。它堅持調動其儲備和分散其剩餘的武器。它將額外的部隊趕到潛在的登陸海灘，以阻止解放軍的入侵。在全球對大量傷亡和困難的強烈抗議中，美國及其盟國開始部署部隊，以加強該島的防禦。
SCENARIO 6：ALL-OUT INVASION 步驟六：全面入侵
【SITUATION】狀況 Xi and his top commanders are convinced they are running out of time. With the world recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan, China’s global standing is worse than at any time since the Korean War. Its pugnacious “wolf warrior” diplomacy and its ongoing gray-zone campaign against Taiwan are hardening American and international support for the island. And the Chinese leadership is convinced it has a narrow window of opportunity to unify Taiwan by force. America is strengthening its forces and alliances in Asia, and Taipei is beginning to make urgent moves to beef up its defenses. Xi and his commanders consider but rule out limited measures, such as seizing outlying islands, imposing blockades or waging an air-and-missile campaign. They calculate these operations are just as likely to ignite a global economic crisis and invite American intervention as a full-scale invasion. And there is no guarantee Taiwan would capitulate. They decide to mount the biggest and most complex amphibious and airborne landing ever attempted. The PLA’s goal is to overwhelm the island before the United States and its allies can respond. 習近平和他的最高指揮官們確信他們的時間不多了。隨著世界從中國武漢市出現的COVID-19大流行病中恢復過來，中國的全球地位比朝鮮戰爭以來的任何時候都要糟糕。它好鬥的「戰狼」外交和正在進行的針對臺灣的灰色地帶運動正在使美國和國際社會對該島的支援變得更加堅硬。而中國領導人確信它有一個狹窄的機會視窗，可以通過武力統一臺灣。美國正在加強其在亞洲的力量和聯盟，而臺北也開始採取緊急行動來加強其防禦。 習近平和他的指揮官們考慮但排除了有限的措施，如奪取離島、實施封鎖或發動空中和導彈戰役。他們認為，這些行動與全面入侵一樣，可能會引發全球經濟危機，並招致美國的干預。而且不能保證臺灣會屈服。 他們決定發動有史以來最大、最複雜的兩栖和空降登陸行動。 解放軍的目標是在美國及其盟友能夠作出反應之前壓倒該島。
【ACTION】行動 Without warning, the PLA launches massive air, missile and cyber-attacks on key military and civilian targets all over Taiwan. At the same time, the PLA attacks U.S. bases in Japan and Guam with air and missile strikes in a bid to paralyze American forces and delay any intervention. While these strikes are underway, a huge armada of PLA amphibious ships, landing craft and civilian ships from China’s vast merchant marine fleet sets sail from Chinese ports, about 130 km from Taiwan at its closest point. Aboard are hundreds of thousands of PLA troops and their heavy equipment. As the landing force approaches Taiwan, PLA transport aircraft and helicopters mount airborne landings on Taiwan to seize key targets including airfields, ports, government buildings and command centers. These airborne landings include special forces units tasked with capturing or killing the island’s political and military leadership. Alongside the military operations, China launches psychological warfare through cyber-attacks and misinformation campaigns on Taiwan’s internet and telecom networks. 在沒有任何警告的情況下，解放軍對臺灣各地的主要軍事和民用目標發動了大規模的空中、導彈和網路攻擊。同時，解放軍以空襲和導彈襲擊美國在日本和關島的基地，以圖癱瘓美國軍隊並拖延任何干預。 在這些打擊進行的同時，一支由解放軍兩栖艦艇、登陸艇和來自中國龐大商船隊的民用船隻組成的龐大艦隊從中國港口起航，離臺灣最近的地方約130公里。船上有數十萬解放軍部隊和他們的重型裝備。 當登陸部隊接近臺灣時，解放軍的運輸機和直升機在臺灣進行空降，以奪取關鍵目標，包括機場、港口、政府大樓和指揮中心。這些空降部隊包括負責抓捕或殺害該島政治和軍事領導人的特種部隊。在軍事行動的同時，中國通過對臺灣的互聯網和電信網路進行網路攻擊和錯誤資訊宣傳來發動心理戰。
